Arroyo Grande, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

037
FXUS66 KLOX 031730
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
930 AM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...03/929 AM.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the week, peaking
Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Locally gusty
Santa Ana winds are possible Friday into early next week. Skies
will be partly cloudy at times with areas of morning fog. No rain
expected through the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...03/926 AM.

Very low impact weather expected through the end of the week as
high pressure over the eastern Pacific deflects all incoming
systems well north and east of the area. As these systems pass us
by there will be periods of light to moderate offshore flow, the
next occurrence being this coming Friday when the NAM is
projecting a -4.5mb LAX-DAG gradient. Not a ton of upper support
with that but enough to likely generate wind gusts up to around 35
mph in the favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and the Santa
Lucias in SLO County. Most areas will get a boost in temperatures
with that as well with coastal valley highs in the 80s and most
other areas in the 70s.

In the meantime, a little cooling today and Wednesday with a
return to light onshore flow before trending back up Thursday.
Some night and morning low clouds and locally dense fog expected
as well.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/139 PM.

Building high pressure over the eastern Pacific along with light
offshore flow will combine with bring warmer temperatures the
latter half of the week and into next weekend. By Friday and
Saturday expecting most valleys to reach the low to mid 80s and
70s for most coastal areas more than a couple miles from the
beach. There will be some breezy northeast winds at times, mainly
in the mountains and through some canyons.

Beyond that there remains a big disparity in the models early
next week as some of the ensemble members show an inside slider
dropping through the Great Basin while others are more progressive
with the pattern. Will likely see many model changes between now
and then, but for now there is a chance for another strong Santa
Ana event next Monday. No rain expected at least through the
middle of next week. However, slightly more than half of the
ensemble solutions show some rain around the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1703Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 500 feet. The
top of the inversion was 2900 feet with a temperature of
15 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs,
but low to moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. Lower confidence
for coastal sites due to uncertainties in behavior of marine layer
stratus/fog. Timing of potential return and flight category are
both low confidence forecasts.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
VFR conditions thru this evening. For tonight/Wednesday morning,
moderate confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but low
confidence in timing of return (could be +/- 4 hours of current
06Z forecast) and flight category (could range from IFR to
VLIFR). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10-15% chance of
LIFR/VLIFR conditions 10Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/839 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
There is a 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind
gusts during the afternoon thru evening hours today and Wednesday,
especially in the southern two zones (PZZ673/676). There is a
30-40% chance of SCA level winds Thursday thru Saturday night,
mainly during the afternoon into the early night hours.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Saturday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level
northeast winds nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica during the
late night and morning hours from Thursday through Saturday.
Elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters, conditions are
expected to remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

Patchy dense fog will affect the coastal waters this morning,
with perhaps more widespread dense fog across the waters late
tonight/Wednesday morning, and again late Wednesday night and
Thursday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox